To reach Paris Agreement Objectives : cut GHG emissions now !

Stephan SavareseNews And Views2 Comments

 

COP21 was the last chance meeting to reach an international agreement on climate change.

COP23 is the last chance meeting to engage successful Climate Action. Why ?

Because, if we want to stop GLOBAL WARMING now, 2018 is the last year to engage fast GHG reduction and reach:
+1.5°C : requiring -7% GHG emissions per year
+2°C : requiring -5% GHG emissions per year

Each extra year will cost +0.1°C of global warming, so it needs to be decided now by COP22 and COP23 leaders #COP22 #COP23

This is the findings of fairly small research teams at The Shift Project and Saving Our Planet. Both NGOs have independently conducted straightforward investigations of what needed to be done to fulfill the goals of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change signe at COP21 in 2015. The beauty of the process is that both teams worked independently during COP22… only to find out that they had addressed the same question and come to similar conclusions when posting the results on Twitter !

And those results are surprisingly consistent not only between one another, but also with previous estimates of the required GHG emission reduction targets for the Paris Agreement :

 

Now, these results will be shared with more expert groups. But everyone can now take a measure of what is required to prevent even more catastrophic consequences of the ongoing climate transition.

 

Reference:

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STOP : arrêtons le #réchauffementclimatique maintenant ! Réduire rapidement les emissions de #GES dès 2018 permettrait d’atteindre les objectifs de l’Accord de Paris sur le Climat de la COP21 :
+ 1.5°C : -7 % d’émissions de GES par an (estimation de Saving Our Planet)
+ 2°C : -5 % d’émissions de GES par an (estimation de The Shift Project)
Chaque année supplémentaire coûtera + 0.1°C de réchauffement global de la planète, donc demandons-le maintenant aux COP22 et COP23 #COP22#COP23

Références:

2 Comments on “To reach Paris Agreement Objectives : cut GHG emissions now !”

  1. Yes, the facts are clear. What is also clear is that short of an economic recession or depression, the required trajectory will not happen. The emissions have been more or less flat since 2014 with all the efforts towards renewables and energy efficiency in place around the world and relatively weak growth till Q3 2016. It is too soon to say, but the CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere seems to have accelerated a bit even, which could point at the deterioration of the natural carbon sinks’s effectiveness to absorb carbon in soils, oceans and vegetation. There are indications that carbon release from permafrost, forest and peat fires and the release of ocean floor methane are all ticking up, but the definite facts are not in and the ENSO and other oscillations are causing background noise, making final conclusions difficult as yet. Meanwhile the albedo of the planet is clearly deteriorating due to the retreat of sea ice and snow pack. So the short conclusion can be that without support of the carbon cycle to sequestrate carbon from the atmosphere, we are in for catastrophic climate change. There are many plans floating around that would A. bury carbon (large scale reforestation, carbon negative agriculture, ocean fertilization, industrial CCS projects and outlyers like olivine carbon sequestration) B. techniques that would cool the planet temporarily like sulfur particle injections in the high atmosphere. It seems only proper that these plans are thoroughly researched and put in motion before the effects of our current crisis will make large scale efforts more and more difficult as the governability of societies is clearly in retreat. At the same time we need to watch that those efforts would not create moral hazard and be an excuse to refrain fro decarbonizing the global economy at top speed.

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